2025-2028 grant for the project What if…? Knowing by Imagining (WIKI).
‘What if?’-counterfactual questions are of momentous importance for scientific explanations (Would we see that particle track if the atom was ionized?), to ascertain responsibilities (Would he have hit the brakes, had he not been distracted?), to choose what to do (Would I get to the other side if I jumped the stream?). We address them by imagining that a hypothetical situation obtains and wondering what would follow.
But how can imagination give us knowledge of reality, if it’s free departure from reality? WIKI will apply in the philosophy of imagination tools from formal epistemology, in particular epistemic and probabilistic logic, to address this issue. If we start by taking counterfactual imagination as a kind of simulated belief revision, we can then analyse it using formal theories of belief revision, in qualitative (focusing on full, all-or-nothing belief) and quantitative clothing (focusing on credences/degrees of belief).
Funded by the , WIKI will develop a logic and a formal epistemology of imagination as suppositional thinking, apply them to analyse the workings of scientific thought experiments, and provide an account of how we can become better hypothetical reasoners.
Download the full description of the WIKI project here.
WIKI Team
Principal Investigator: Franz Berto
Postdoctoral Research Fellow: Petronella Randell
Postroctoral Research Fellow: Soroush Rafiee Rad
Teaching Fellow: Alessandro Rossi
WIKI Steering Committee
Dr. (EHESS, Jean Nicod)
Prof. (Claremont McKenna)
Prof. (CUNY)
WIKI outputs
- L. Hornischer & F. Berto, ‘The Logic of Dynamical Systems is Relevant’, Mind 2025, .
- F. Berto, ‘Saying the Same Thing’,ÌýErkenntnis 2025, .
- F. Berto, ‘The Ramsey Test for Counterfactuals Is a Consistent ‘Heuristic”, Ergo, forthcoming 2026, .
- S. Rafiee Rad, J. Williamson and J. Landes, ‘A decidable class of inferences in first-order objective Bayesian inductive logic’,ÌýAnnals of Pure and Applied Logic, forthcoming 2026.
- F. Berto & A. Özgün, ‘The Method of Thought Experiments: Probability and Counterfactuals’, Journal of Philosophy, forthcoming 2026, .
WIKI seminar, Sem 2 2025-26, Mondays 3-5 in Edgecliffe G03
| Apr 13
Ìý |
Franz & Soroush: Imaging Maximizes Expected Modal Epistemic Utility |
| Apr 20
Ìý |
Reading session [Petronella]: |
| Apr 27 | Reading session (Franz): |
| May 4
Ìý |
No seminar (bank holiday) |
| May 11
Ìý |
No seminar |
| May 18
Ìý |
Reading session [Matthew]: |
| May 25
Ìý |
No seminar (bank holiday) |
| June 1
Ìý |
No seminar (SASP Reading Party) |
| June 8
Ìý |
Reading session [Matthew]: |
| June 15
Ìý |
Reading session [Alice]: |
| June 22 | Petronella: TBD |
| June 29
Ìý |
No seminar (graduation) |
| July 6
Ìý |
TBD |
| July 13
Ìý |
No seminar |
Postdoctoral Research Fellows: Soroush Rafiee Rad, Petronella Randell
Principal Investigator: Franz Berto
Members: Greg Restall, Jessica Brown, Cecily Whiteley, Miriam Bowen
Research students: Francisca Silva, Sophie Nagler, Sabina Dominguez Parrado, Giulia Schirripa, Matthew Green, Pak Him Lai
Associated news
WIKI project funded with 500K pounds by the Leverhulme Trust